The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development says the world economy is near the bottom of the hardest recession since war time.
30 of the most industrialised nations which the OECD represent says those economies will contract by just over 4% this year and recovery is likely to be “weak and fragile,” The BBC reports.
The UK’s output is set to drop by 4.3% in 2009, worse than its previous forecast of a 3.7% fall, says the organisation.
It predicts zero growth in the UK economy in 2010 and says the UK budget deficit will reach 14% next year, worse than Government had previously estimated.
The OECD says the pace of the global downturn is now moderating after the sharp drop in the six months to March, yet it still predicts output will shrink by 2.2% this year.
However, the OECD has revised its overall economic forecast upwards, especially in 2010, for the first time in two years. It says the economies of Japan and the US are expected to decline less sharply than projected in its previous report.
With advanced economies will return to weak growth of 0.7% in 2010, compared with its previous forecast of a contraction of 0.1%,”it looks like the worst scenario has been avoided,” the OECD says.
“Even if the subsequent recovery may be slow, such an outcome is a major achievement of economic policy,” it adds.
However, it is more pessimistic about the UK and the eurozone’s prospects as “signs of impending recovery in the euro area are not yet clearly visible,” due to housing bubbles, damage to the financial sector and export set backs.
The OECD also warns rising public sector deficits in the UK will need to be reined in as recovery takes hold. It urges the Government to develop a “concrete and comprehensive plan” to ensure debt is on a deteriorating path.
Despite mortgage approvals rising the BBA said that the mortgage market remained subdued.
Net new mortgage lending of £2.3bn in May, was again at its lowest level since March 2001, having fallen from £2.5bn in April.
BBA statistics director David Dooks argued that High Street banks were loosening their lending constraints and offering mortgages to people who did not have a large deposit to give.
But he said that consumers’ appetite to borrow had been hit by uncertainty over jobs, house prices and the state of the economy in general.
This also meant that demand for new loans was contracting, and spending on credit cards was down 11.4% on a year ago.
With interest rates still at a record low, the number of people remortgaging has continued to fall. Approvals were down 60% to 24,847 in May as many householders simply stuck with their lenders’ variable rates.
Low interest rates - with the Bank rate still at 0.5% - were also hitting savings, with the BBA seeing a low level of new deposits being made by customers, who are likely to be searching elsewhere for higher returns.